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The silver miners showed impressive fundamental strength during 2015’s grim fourth quarter.  That was the worst silver suffered in many years, a perfect-stor...

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  • Silver Miners Strong in Grim Q4
    By on April 30, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    The silver miners showed impressive fundamental strength during 2015’s grim fourth quarter.  That was the worst silver suffered in many years, a perfect-storm trough with major secular lows fueling extreme bearish sentiment.  Traders feared this entire industry faced an existential threat, so th...
  • NYSE Margin Debt Increased in March
    By on April 29, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let’s examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and the market, using the S&P 500 as the surrogate for the latter. ...
  • Silver’s New Bull Market
    By on April 25, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Silver officially entered a new bull market this week, decisively crossing the necessary +20% threshold.  Speculators and investors alike are returning as awareness spreads of how radically undervalued silver is compared to prevailing gold prices.  When silver awakens to a new bull market after a ...
  • Technically Speaking: Bull Versus Bear Case
    By on April 20, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    As the trumpets sound to signal the start of earnings season, the battle between fundamentals and “hope” begins. Despite weakening earnings, which on an as reported basis are far worse than the rather manipulated “operating”levels currently suggest, the bulls have remained steadfast in their...
  • April 20-27 (Free Event): 50+ Global Markets. 100R...
    By on April 20, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Starting at 9 a.m. ET Wednesday, April 20, our friends at Elliott Wave International are “opening the doors” to their entire line of trader-focused Pro Services — free for 7 days — during: Pro Services Open House. EWI Pro Services bring you opportunity-rich, professional-grad...
  • Gold Stocks Double, To Double
    By on April 16, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Gold-mining stocks surged higher this past week after breaking free from their high consolidation.  This newest upleg catapulted gold stocks to a doubling in less than 3 months, a remarkable world-leading performance.  But despite its quick doubling, this red-hot sector still has another easy doub...
  • The Illusion Of Permanent Liquidity
    By on April 15, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    It’s been more than seven years since the financial crisis and Central Banks globally have kept their rates at record lows, and have even ventured into negative rate territory, to stave off the threat of a recessionary relapse and boost anemic economic growth. While such policies have failed to sp...
  • Equity Valuations, Recessions and Stock Market Declin...
    By on April 14, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    When I initiated the dshort web page in late 2005, one of my routine topics was equity valuations, initially inspired by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller’s book, Irrational Exuberance, the second edition of which was published earlier that year. I gradually expanded my focus from his cyclically a...
  • Technically Speaking: The Month Of April
    By on April 13, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    In this past weekend’s newsletter, I laid out a case for being “cautiously optimistic” as technical action had improved and short-term buy signals had been triggered. To wit: “By the time “buy” and “sell” signals are triggered, the initial recovery has already completed most of i...
  • Is The Stock Market Cheap?
    By on April 12, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor’s “as reported” earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. For the earnings, see the table below created from Standard & Po...
  • Gold Defies Stock Bear Rally
    By on April 10, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Gold has spent much of the past couple months consolidating, vexing traders and bleeding away most of early 2016’s enthusiasm that catapulted the yellow metal higher.  But this sideways grind has actually been a very impressive show of strength.  Gold managed to hold its massive gains despite an...
  • The Panama Papers: Consequences of Centralized Money ...
    By on April 6, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Technologies such as the blockchain are enabling alternative ways of creating and distributing money outside central banks and states. If we don’t change the way money is created and distributed, we will never change anything. This is the core message of my book A Radically Beneficial World: A...
  • NYSE Margin Debt Falls Again: More Confirmation of a ...
    By on April 3, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let’s examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and the market, using the S&P 500 as the surrogate for the latter. ...
  • Silver Is Coiled Spring
    By on April 2, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Silver’s reluctant, sluggish participation in early 2016’s powerful gold rally has been glaringly obvious.  Instead of amplifying the yellow metal’s big gains as in the past, silver largely failed to even keep pace.  The lack of silver confirmation for gold’s big move has certainly raised ...
  • Gold Stocks’ Spring Rally
    By on March 28, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    The red-hot gold stocks have spent most of March in consolidation mode, grinding sideways near their 2016 highs.  Interestingly this month’s rally pause is par for the course seasonally in gold-stock bull markets.  Like gold itself, this sector tends to slump to a seasonal low in mid-March befor...
  • Brace Yourself: Latest Look At Student Debt
    By on March 23, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    College Tuition and Fees constitute one of the biggest threats to our economic outlook. Here is a chart of data from the relevant Consumer Price Index sub-component reaching back to 1978, the earliest year Uncle Sam provides a breakout for College Tuition and Fees. As an interesting sidebar, we̵...

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