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The NYSE has released new data for margin debt, now available through September. I’ve updated the charts in this commentary to include the latest numbers....

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  • NYSE Margin Debt Drifts Higher Again in September
    By on November 1, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The NYSE has released new data for margin debt, now available through September. I’ve updated the charts in this commentary to include the latest numbers. The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYXdata website, where we can also find historical data back...
  • Have Global Markets Bottomed?
    By on October 31, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    A number of global markets outside of the U.S. have been in serious declines. But have they bottomed? Or just rallied back from oversold conditions beneath their 50-day m.a. back up to potential resistance at the moving averages?     To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Buy th...
  • 2014 Stealth Bear Market: Transition or Top?
    By on October 30, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    In many respects 2014 is shaping up similar to 1994 and 2004. In those years the economy finally started to gather momentum several years after the end of a recession and the Federal Reserve began moving towards a tighter monetary policy. Before then, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan continued to cut in...
  • Changing Culture: Gasoline Volume Sales and Demograph...
    By on October 30, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) data on volume sales is over two months old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-August, are now available. However, despite the lag, this report offers an interesting perspective on fascinating aspects of the US e...
  • ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
    By on October 30, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 131.9, down substantially from the previous week’s 134.3. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -0.1, down from 1.0 the previous week and its first negative print since August of 2012. ECRI has been...
  • Chart Of The Day: Junk Bonds As An Early Warning
    By on October 30, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Chart Of The Day is a look at the level, and movement, of “junk bond yields” as they relate to the broader stock market. While the media prefers to use a more “marketing friendly” term of “high-yield bonds,” the reality is that these are debt securities issued by ...
  • European Service Prices Plunge At Steepest Rate Since...
    By on October 30, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The Markit Flash Eurozone PMI shows the steepest fall in output prices since the global crisis began. The PMI also shows renewed job losses in spite of an otherwise stable PMI. The Eurozone saw a marginal upturn in growth of business activity in October, according to the flash PMI results. The hea...
  • Is this the Beginning of a New Bear Market?
    By on October 28, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Over $5.5 trillion in value has been erased in global equities since they peaked in September and stabilized last Wednesday. The S&P 500 lost nearly 200 points with the Dow shedding nearly 1500 during the correction. Commodities took a nosedive as well West Texas Intermediate Crude, which fell n...
  • Extreme Precious Metals Shorting Peaks
    By on October 28, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The world’s financial markets are changing dramatically with the Federal Reserve on the verge of ending its third quantitative-easing campaign.  The Fed’s massive deluge of inflation drastically distorted markets, which are finally starting to normalize.  The precious metals were crushed by th...
  • Bullish Silver Stealth Buying
    By on October 27, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Battered silver remains deeply out of favor, recently plumbing miserable new lows after drifting sideways for most of 2014.  This metal’s relentless and oppressive weakness continues to break the wills of long-suffering contrarians.  But professional investors are taking advantage of the epicall...
  • Buy The Dip Or Sell The Rally?
    By on October 26, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    I’ve been around a long time, through many economic and market cycles, and I don’t recall a time when the bull/bear debate had such strong arguments on both sides. The Bullish Case The economic recovery from the Great Recession continues. The Fed promises to keep rates low until the economy str...
  • ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
    By on October 23, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 134.4, up slightly from the previous week’s 134.1. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at 1.0, down from 1.5 the previous week. ECRI has been at the center of a prolonged controversy since publicizin...

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