Logo Background RSS
What does a Trump Presidency mean for the economy and the markets, and does it alter our defensive posture? The short answer is no, and here’s why. Trump...

Most Recent Articles

  • Fiscal Spending: Crystal Balls and Magic Wands
    By on December 4, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    What does a Trump Presidency mean for the economy and the markets, and does it alter our defensive posture? The short answer is no, and here’s why. Trump has made it clear that he wants to lower taxes, roll back suffocating regulations on businesses, and increase fiscal spending on infrastruc...
  • Gold, Miners Under Trump
    By on November 13, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Donald Trump’s epic underdog victory climaxing the US presidential race was radically unexpected by the great majority of the world.  Equally if not more surprising was the subsequent days’ market reaction.  Stock markets, gold, and gold-mining stocks did exactly the opposite of what was unive...
  • Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally
    By on November 9, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    The gold miners’ stocks have certainly had a wild ride this year.  After initially skyrocketing out of deep secular lows into a mighty new bull market, they recently suffered a massive correction climaxing in an extreme plummet.  This coincided with gold stocks’ major seasonal low in October....
  • A New Look NYSE Margin Debt and the Market
    By on November 7, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Note: The NYSE has released new data for margin debt, now available through September. The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let’s examine the numbers and study the relationship b...
  • What Gold Does In A Currency Crisis: Brexit Edition
    By on November 4, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    In June the UK shocked the world – or at least the world’s elites – by voting to pull out of the European Union. Economists predicted disaster, EU leaders threatened pain for British exporters and tourists, and the media settled in to watch the UK shrivel and die. Four months later, the approp...
  • Economic Breadth Is Significantly Deteriorating in th...
    By on November 3, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Philly Fed state coincident data came out today and more states across the country are starting to contract (shown in red). Looking at the snapshot below, positively growing states still dominate the map (and don’t give much of an alarming picture), but a different story emerges when we look a...
  • Home Ownership Rate Lowest Level In 50 Years
    By on November 2, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Over the last decade the general trend has been consistent: The rate of home ownership continues to decline. The Census Bureau has now released its latest quarterly report with data through Q3 2016. The seasonally adjusted rate for Q3 is 63.4 percent, up from 63.1 in Q2. The nonseasonally adjusted Q...
  • End Of The Bond Bull – Better Hope Not
    By on November 2, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    It’s been really busy as of late to cover all of the topics I have wanted to address. One topic, in particular, is the bond market and the ongoing concerns of a “bond bubble” due to historically low interest rates in the U.S. and, by direct consequence, historically high bond prices. Bob Bryan...
  • Technically Speaking: Bullish or Bearish?
    By on November 1, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Yesterday, the markets opened higher but drifted lower into the afternoon as the support behind the markets as of late have continued to remain weak. As shown in the chart below, the markets remain trapped between the downward price trend from the summer highs and the rising bottoms from the Septem...
  • Stupid Stuff: Late-2016 Edition
    By on October 27, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Cyclical turning points tend to feature large numbers of people doing and saying what in retrospect turn out to be amazingly dumb things. Think GM highlighting its line of Hummers just before an oil price spike bankrupts the company. Or half the world betting that tech stocks with infinite P/E ratio...
  • Gold Green Lights Upleg!
    By on October 26, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Gold’s early-October plunge on futures speculators’ stop losses being run has naturally left this metal mired in battered technicals and bearish sentiment.  But that sharp selloff has already accomplished its rebalancing mission.  The excessive gold-futures trading positions that triggered tha...
  • More Good News For Gold Bugs: The Bottom Is Getting C...
    By on October 26, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    In the latest gold and silver commitment of traders (COT) report (click here for an explanation of what this report involves), paper players made big strides in bringing the market back into balance — and setting the stage for an eventual rebound. Speculators – who tend to be emotional and there...
  • A New Look NYSE Margin Debt and the Market
    By on October 26, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    The NYSE has released new data for margin debt, now available through August. The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let’s examine the numbers and study the relationship between mar...
  • Market Cap to GDP: An Updated Look at the Buffett Val...
    By on October 21, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Market Cap to GDP is a long-term valuation indicator that has become popular in recent years, thanks to Warren Buffett. Back in 2001 he remarked in a Fortune Magazine interview that “it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” The four valuation...
  • Yes, You Should Worry About Market Corrections
    By on October 20, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    One of the biggest reasons why investors consistently underperform over the long-term is primarily due to the extremely flawed advice promoted by Wall Street, because they have a product or service to sell you, and the media, because they don’t know better. The latest bit of advice that you should...
  • Great News For Gold Bugs: The COT Report Is Playing O...
    By on October 19, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    This year’s recovery in precious metals prices – and the sudden spike in gold/silver mining stocks – convinced a lot of people that a new bull market had begun. Last week’s brutal smack-down scared the hell out of many of the same folks. The latest commitment of traders (COT) report implies ...

Member Login

Search

Real Time Web Analytics