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The US Federal Reserve has been universally lauded for the apparent success of its extreme monetary policy of recent years.  With key world stock markets near ...

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  • Fed’s Full Normalization
    By on July 4, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    The US Federal Reserve has been universally lauded for the apparent success of its extreme monetary policy of recent years.  With key world stock markets near record highs, traders universally love the Fed’s zero-interest-rate and quantitative-easing campaigns.  But this celebration is terribly ...
  • Extreme Gold/Silver Shorting
    By on June 27, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Gold and silver are languishing near major lows, trudging through the barren sentiment wasteland of the summer doldrums.  The major factor behind this weakness is extreme shorting by American futures speculators.  But their heavily-bearish bets are actually very bullish for both precious metals. ...
  • Gold Seasonals Bottoming
    By on June 17, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Gold remains deeply out of favor, languishing near major lows.  Traders are still convinced gold is going nowhere, and want nothing to do with it.  But provocatively that’s par for the course in early June, when gold slumps to its most-important seasonal low.  Gold’s seasonals are now bottomi...
  • The Q Ratio and Market Valuation: Monthly Update
    By on June 12, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    The Q Ratio is a popular method of estimating the fair value of the stock market developed by Nobel Laureate James Tobin. It’s a fairly simple concept, but laborious to calculate. The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. Fortunately, th...
  • Turns Out There’s Already Competition In The Gold-B...
    By on June 12, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    The splash that BitGold made recently by buying GoldMoney led many (including this writer) to assume that the Canadian start-up was pioneering the gold-backed currency space. But it turns out that Peter Schiff’s Euro Pacific Bank already allows non-US customers to buy gold and/or silver, store it ...
  • The Punch Bowl Stays
    By on June 12, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    It is well known that I don’t think much of the ability of government officials to correctly forecast much of anything. Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke have made famously clueless predictions with respect to stock and housing bubbles, and rank and file Fed economists have consistently overestimat...
  • As Goes The Credit Market, So Goes The World
    By on June 10, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    During the prior economic cycle of 2003-2007, one question I asked again and again was: Is the US running on a business cycle or a credit cycle? That question was prompted by a series of data I have tracked for decades; data that tells a very important story about the character of the US economy. Sp...
  • (Video) Japanese Yen Falls to a 17-Year Low: Watch Ho...
    By on June 10, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Put differently, USDJPY is now trading at a 17-year high… but will it last? You’ll find many explanations in the news why the U.S. dollar is trading at the highest point against the Japanese yen since 2002. Most of them have one thing in common: They rationalize the move which has alrea...
  • In Denial: We Pursue Endless Growth At Our Peril
    By on June 10, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    As we’ve been discussing of late here at PeakProsperity.com, humans desperately need a new story to live by. The old one is increasingly dysfunctional and rather obviously headed for either a quite dismal or possibly disastrous future. One of the chief impediments to recognizing the dysfunctio...
  • A Technical Review Of Stocks And Bonds
    By on June 10, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Apparently, judging by the number of emails, the recent volatility in the stock and bond markets has finally awoken many complacent investors. To wit: “Stocks and bonds are both declining in value at the same time. What should I do to protect my portfolio as I am bleeding money over the last c...
  • Radical Gold Underinvestment!
    By on June 6, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Gold remains deeply out of favor thanks to global central banks’ extreme money printing.  This fueled a global stock-market levitation that has temporarily short-circuited normal market cycles, leaving investors infatuated with stocks to the exclusion of prudent portfolio diversification.  This ...
  • NYSE Margin Debt Hits a New Record High!!!
    By on May 30, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    The NYSE has released new data for margin debt, now available through April. We’ve updated the charts in this commentary to include the latest numbers. The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYXdata website, where we can also find historical data back t...
  • Are We in Another Credit Bubble? And Is It Different ...
    By on May 29, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Part 1 of our FREE report on the recent build-up in credit includes a chart of U.S. corporate debt issuance since 1998 you don’t want to miss Whatever your politics, creed or nationality — we can all agree that a huge catalyst for the 2008-9 global financial meltdown was the universal b...
  • When The Current Housing Bubble Finally Bursts?
    By on May 27, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Bubbles are followed by echo-bubbles, and the bursting of the second bubble ends the speculative cycle. If we have learned anything in the past 20 years of massive asset bubbles and equally massive declines when the bubbles finally pop, it’s this: those caught up in the expansionary phase of t...
  • Housing Recovery: Real Or Memorex?
    By on May 26, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    There are probably quite a few of you reading this article who do not remember the old“Memorex” commercials when “cassette tapes” were THE recording technology of the day. It was yesterday’s release of the housing starts data that reminded me of that slogan -“Is ...
  • The End Is Near, Part V: Paying Dividends With Borrow...
    By on May 24, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    A recent Goldman Sachs report explains where this year’s stock market profits (should there be any) will come from: Buybacks and Dividends All That’s Left in S&P 500, Goldman Says (Bloomberg) — The $1 trillion that U.S. companies are on track to return to shareholders this year will const...

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