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Gold has suffered a rough couple of months, getting pounded below major support.  One driver was stock-market capital flowing out of gold again, as evidenced b...

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  • GLD and Gold’s Selloff
    By on November 23, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Gold has suffered a rough couple of months, getting pounded below major support.  One driver was stock-market capital flowing out of gold again, as evidenced by renewed differential selling pressure seen in gold-ETF shares.  But this was minor compared to last year’s, despite extreme bearish sen...
  • 5 Things To Ponder: Rising Risk
    By on November 23, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    There are things going on with the financial markets currently that seem just a bit “out of balance.” For example, asset prices are rising against a backdrop of global weakness, deflationary pressures and rising valuations. More importantly, there is a rising divergence between sentiment...
  • Still Lower Oil Prices Ahead
    By on November 20, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Crude oil prices, at a four-year low, have plunged 30% in the past six months, and it looks like they are destined to fall further. In its monthly report, released Friday, the International Energy Agency said, “Our forecasts indicate that barring any new supply disruptions, downward price pressure...
  • ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
    By on November 19, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 132.1, down from the previous week’s 132.5. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -2.8, down from -2.1 the previous week. ECRI has been at the center of a prolonged controversy since publicizing its...
  • Several Bullish Supports Suggest Bears Should Temper ...
    By on November 19, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    It’s always a good idea to periodically take a look at what the foreign community is doing in terms of net US equity purchases. The reason lies in the fact that they tend to buy at tops and sell at bottoms and can serve as a contrary indicator. We saw this not only in the 2000 and 2007 bull ma...
  • Inflation Chronicles, Part I: Art Prices So High, Cro...
    By on November 19, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Depending on which expert is talking, the world is either falling into a deflationary abyss or launching an inflationary moonshot. What’s truly weird and fascinating is that they’re both right. The mountain of debt taken on in the past few decades exerts a profoundly deflationary pull on the eco...
  • The Return Of The Dollar
    By on November 19, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Two years ago, my friend Mohamed El-Erian and I were on the stage at my Strategic Investment Conference. Naturally we were discussing currencies in the global economy, and I asked him about currency wars. He smiled and said to me, “John, we don’t talk about currency wars in polite circles. More ...
  • Contemplating Stocks Without QE
    By on November 19, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Some influences on the stock market are casual, subtle or open to interpretation, but the catalyst behind the current stock market rally really shouldn’t be controversial. As far as stocks go, we have lived by QE. The only question now is, whether we will die without it. A larger version of th...
  • Why Rising US Dollar Could Destabilize Global Financi...
    By on November 18, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    I have been suggesting for several years that the U.S. Dollar would confound those anticipating its demise by starting a long secular uptrend. In early September I made the case for a rising U.S. dollar, based on the basic supply and demand for dollars stemming from four dynamics: Demand for dollars...
  • Disturbing Comparison: Corporate Profit Margins versu...
    By on November 18, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Yesterday’s collection of Advisor Perspectives articles particularly caught my attention: Why Jeremy Grantham is Right about Corporate Profit Margins by Baijnath Ramraika and Prashant Trivedi. The article includes a number of fascinating graphs, the first of which is a snapshot of US Corporate...
  • Why The Stock Market Is Detached From The Economy
    By on November 18, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Think about this for a moment. The stock market is comprised of thousands of companies doing business in the economy. Therefore, it only makes sense that the value of the stock market should be a reflection of the economy. As the economy ebbs and flows, so should the values of the companies that are...
  • Gold-Stock Apocalypse
    By on November 17, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    This latest capitulation by gold-stock investors has left this hated sector at truly apocalyptic lows.  Bearish consensus is so extreme that pretty much everyone believes the gold miners are doomed to spiral lower forever.  But today’s horrendous gold-stock price levels aren’t righteous, they...

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