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“3 Things” is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio st...

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  • 3 Things: Kass, Rosie and Short
    By on April 25, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    “3 Things” is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and portfolio allocations. Please feel free to...
  • Spain: Unemployment Rate 23.7% – 114,300 Jobs V...
    By on April 25, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    The economic recovery in Spain has gone from jobless to jobloss. Spain shed 114,300 jobs in the first quarter of 2015. Via translation from El Pais, Spain’s Unemployment Rate Rose Slightly in the First Quarter. The economic recovery has not been enough to create jobs. In the first three month...
  • The Coolest Silver Coins, Finally Back On The Market
    By on April 25, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    In 2005 a New Jersey car dealer named Chris Duane started questioning the system that let his customers borrow ridiculous amounts of money to buy the frivolous things he was selling. He studied a little monetary history and concluded that fiat currency was a doomed concept and that sound money, espe...
  • Central Banks: Another Stunning Long-Term Chart
    By on April 24, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    From a recent presentation(.pdf) by Agustín Carstens, Bank of Mexico governor and chairman of the IMF’s International Monetary and Financial Committee, via this item at Wolf Street comes the chart below that, once again, reminds us all how far removed the global financial system is from anything...
  • New Homes Sales Disappoint Forecasts
    By on April 24, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    This morning’s release of the March New Single-Family Homes Sales from the Census Bureau at 481K disappointed expectations, although the sales for the previous month were revised upward. The actual decline was 11.4%. The Investing.com forecast was for 513K sales, which would have been a 5.4% d...
  • US Oil Glut: How High Can It Go?
    By on April 24, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    As expected, EIA on Wednesday reported for week ending April 17, U.S. crude-oil inventories gained 5.3 million barrels to 489 million barrels, which is still the highest in at least 80 years, according to the EIA. Looking closer at each PAD region, almost all the inventory adds occurred in Gulf Coas...
  • Market Decision Point Approaching
    By on April 23, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    I have frequently written about the fallacy of long-term investment objectives and actual investor behaviors. As repeatedly shown by Dalbar studies, despite what investors and advisors say about long-term investing, the reality is that actions clearly speak of much shorter-term realities. This is w...
  • Corporate Profit Pattern Emerges: OK Earnings, Sales ...
    By on April 23, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    CNBC has a daily feature called after-hours buzz that, it being earnings season, is full of corporate quarterly reports. And lately the same story has been repeated: decent earnings but weak sales and/or disappointing guidance. Here’s today’s list: AT&T topped analysts’ profit estimates by...
  • Second Quarter Outlook
    By on April 23, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    The twin impacts of a rising dollar and falling oil prices over the past couple quarters have taken their toll on the markets and are a large reason why the S&P 500 has been more or less flat this year. Based on analyst estimates, Q1 is slated to be the first quarterly profits recession since 2...
  • BofA Confusing Liquidity Fueled And Secular Bull Mark...
    By on April 23, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Over the past couple of years, there has been a growing chorus of individuals claiming that the financial markets have finally shaken the shackles of the secular bear market that began at the turn of the century. This, of course, suggests that the markets have now begun the next long-term secular bu...
  • When All News Is Bad News
    By on April 23, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    One of the defining traits of financial bubbles is the willingness of traders and investors to interpret pretty much everything as a buy signal. Rising corporate earnings mean growth, while falling profits mean easier money on the way. War means more revenues for defense contractors and easy money f...
  • IMF and Greece
    By on April 23, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    “Greece could make it a few months delaying payment to the IMF — but it will need to reach an accord with its creditors by late July” writes Bloomberg Economist David Powell in this morning’s Bloomberg Brief. http://briefs.blpprofessional.com/issue?id=N-wZwyI1MP7GwRxM1xpNQA__ At Cumberland,...
  • Grexit: Remaining Eurozone No Longer ‘Base Case’ ...
    By on April 23, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    According to the Wall Street Journal, Greece staying in the eurozone is no longer “the base case” for European officials, and one even told the Journal that “literally nothing has been achieved” in negotiations with the new Greek government since the Greek election almost three months ago. ...
  • Wedges and Triangles: Big Move Ahead?
    By on April 22, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    The central bank high is euphoric, the crash and burn equally epic. Just out of curiosity, I called up a few charts of key markets: stocks (the S&P 500), volatility (VIX), gold and the U.S. dollar (UUP, an exchange-traded fund for the dollar). Interestingly, all of these charts displayed some ve...
  • The Student Loan Hockey Sticks
    By on April 22, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Via this Bloomberg story on Friday by Noah Smith come the two charts below that help to explain why the nation’s student loan mess (that continues to slowly spiral out of control despite pleas from indebted students) will not likely see any substantive reform efforts. Granted, the lower chart is ...
  • Tax Receipts Flash Economic Warning Sign
    By on April 21, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    With “tax day” now firmly behind us, it is expected that 2015 will show a record level of tax collections. This is a good thing, right? Maybe not. Over the weekend, an economist friend of mine sent me an interesting piece of analysis discussing the record level of tax receipts as a perc...

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