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Over the last several weeks, I have discussed the markets entrance into the “Seasonally Weak” period of the year and the breakout of the market above the...

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  • Technically Speaking: Bull Hopes, Bear Signals
    By on May 25, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Over the last several weeks, I have discussed the markets entrance into the “Seasonally Weak” period of the year and the breakout of the market above the downtrend line that began last year. The rally from the February lows, driven by a tremendous amount of short covering, once again ignited ...
  • Rosengren Likely Mistaken About Hiking Rates
    By on May 24, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Over the weekend, Sam Fleming with the Financial Times interviewed Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren about why the Fed is likely to tighten monetary policy sooner rather than later. “The reason they should believe this time is different is that the economic conditions are changing over this per...
  • Best Stock Market Indicator Update
    By on May 23, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    We continue to receive requests for updates to the “Best Stock Market Indicator”, which used to be a regular guest post from John Carlucci. Here is an update of the “Carlucci” indicator along with a summary of John’s explanation on how he uses it. As John described it:...
  • Silver Miners’ Q1’16 Fundamentals
    By on May 21, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    The world’s elite silver miners just finished reporting their operating results from 2016’s first quarter, and they were impressive.  This industry continued to drive its costs lower even as silver finally started mean reverting out of mid-December’s deep secular low.  The silver miners are ...
  • Unintended Consequences – Part 1: Easy Money = ...
    By on May 20, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Somewhere back in the depths of time the world got the idea that easy money — that is, low interest rates and high levels of government spending — would produce sustainable growth with modest but positive inflation. And for a while it seemed to work. But that was an illusion. What actually happe...
  • Tech Investor, Beware. Read This Urgent New Report...
    By on May 20, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    “How to lose $355 million in two weeks” — it’s a lesson tech CEO Jack Dorsey just learned the hard way. Over a recent two-week period as April rolled into May, shares of the two companies Dorsey founded and now runs, Twitter and Square, lost $3.7 billion in market value, $355...
  • Technically Speaking: Maybe You Should ‘Sell In...
    By on May 19, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Last Friday the market closed below its 50-day moving average. Theoretically, such a close should have sent traders scrambling for cover Monday morning. As I noted in this past weekend’s missive: “While the long-term picture still clearly suggests a high level of risk aversion, short-term dynam...
  • The Economy In Pictures: Weakness Continues
    By on May 19, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    As we begin to wrap up the 2nd quarter of the year, I thought it was time to revisit the economy as the backdrop against expectations for stronger economic growth, rising inflationary pressures and an increase in interest rates and expectations. While there is currently a plethora of commentary str...
  • Best Stock Market Indicator Update
    By on May 17, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    We continue to receive requests for updates to the “Best Stock Market Indicator”, which used to be a regular guest post from John Carlucci. Here is an update of the “Carlucci” indicator along with a summary of John’s explanation on how he uses it. As John described it:...
  • Technically Speaking: Importance Of Duration Matching
    By on May 17, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    I am going to take a little deviation from the normal “technical update” to discuss an issue that is very important, and always overlooked, by mainstream analysis – “duration.” In the bond market the concept of “duration matching” is commonplace. If I have a specific target date 10-y...
  • Gold Miners: Q1,2016 Fundamentals
    By on May 16, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    The gold miners’ stocks have skyrocketed this year as investors started returning to this long-abandoned sector.  Many have doubled since January, with plenty tripling or even quadrupling.  Naturally such fast gains raise concerns about whether they are actually fundamentally justified or merely...
  • Market Remains Overvalued, Up from Last Month
    By on May 13, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis. The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio (more) The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor (more) The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost (more)...
  • Wall Street Is Falling Off A Cliff, And The Bottom Is...
    By on May 13, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    For the past 50 or so years, the quickest way for a sharp young sociopath to get rich has been to join an investment bank or hedge fund. The former were riding a “regulatory capture” gravy train that became ever-more-lucrative as new government agencies morphed into subsidiaries of Wall Street. ...
  • The Problem Of Excessive Optimism
    By on May 11, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Commercial bankruptcies are skyrocketing, oil prices have collapsed, profits have declined and Central Banks globally are pushing negative interest rates in hopes of keeping economies afloat. At any other point in history, such a combination of events would have investors scrambling for cover as m...
  • Gold Stocks Too Far Too Fast?
    By on May 7, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    The gold-mining stocks have skyrocketed this year, radically outperforming every other sector.  Smart contrarians who bought them low late last year and in January have seen their capital doubled, tripled, and even quadrupled!  But such blistering gains raise the ominous specter of crippling overb...
  • Major Disconnect: One Chart Says It All
    By on May 6, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    People sense the ‘recovery” is bogus, and their rational response is to save more money rather than squander it. Sometimes one chart captures the fundamental reality of the economy: for example, this chart of money velocity and the civilian-population ratio. (thank you, Joseph Y. for pos...

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