The BLS, as part of the NFP report, has issued its preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision, which confirms that the BLS is really just BS. According to the report, for the period ended March 2010, the BLS has overestimated jobs by 366,000 (0.3%), or just over 30K jobs per month. While not as bad as the prior benchmark revision of almost one million for the period ending March 2009, this continue to be a blow to both the credibility and the data tracking capability of the US Bureau of Truth. By industry, the biggest hit was to the trade, transportation and utilities industry (-144K), Manufacturing (-114K) and Leisure and Hospitality (-91K). Luckily, losses in these critical sectors were offset by even more bankers than had been previously expected: Professional and business services ended up being revised higher by 14K.
From the Excerpt:
Preliminary Estimates of Benchmark Revisions to the Establishment Survey
In accordance with usual practice, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is announcing its preliminary estimates of the upcoming annual bench-mark revision to the establishment survey employment series. The final benchmark revision will be issued on February 4, 2011, with the publication of the January 2011 Employment Situation news release. Each year, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey employment estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment for the month of March derived from state unemployment insurance tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. For national CES employment series, the average of the absolute values of the annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years is 0.3 percent at the total nonfarm level. The preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision indicates a downward adjustment to March 2010 total nonfarm employment of 366,000 (-0.3 percent).
Table B shows the March 2010 preliminary benchmark revisions by major industry sector. As is typically the case, many of the individual industry series show larger percentage revisions than the total nonfarm series, primarily because statistical sampling error is greater at more detailed levels than at a total level.
An interesting “Goldilocks” read, in which total jobs missed expectations of -5K wildly, yet Private jobs missed much more modestly by just 11K (and beat Goldman’s expectation). The unemployment rate came in at 9.6% on expectations of 9.7%. The actual number of people unemployed was 14.767 million, a small decline from August’ 14.860, and since the civilian labor force continues to refuse to increase at 154.1 million, the jobless rate is obviously flat. Government workers declined by 159,000, and census took out 77,000. And of course, prior data was revised adversely for both August and July. Yet the most notable number appears to be the U-6, which jumped to 17.1% from 16.7% in August. The reason futures are struggling on this report, is that it is not so bad to guarantee QE2, and is most certainly not “good.”
And some of the key excerpts:
Among the marginally attached, there were 1.2 million discouraged workers in September, an increase of 503,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.3 million persons marginally attached to the labor force had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.
On declining government workers:
Government employment fell by 159,000 in September. A decline in federal government employment was due to the loss of 77,000 temporary Census 2010 jobs. As of September, about 6,000 temporary decennial census workers remained on the federal government payroll, down from a peak of 564,000 in May. Employment in local government decreased by 76,000 in September with job losses in both education and noneducation.
On unchanged average hourly wages:
Average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 1 cent to $22.67 in September. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 1.7 percent. In September, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 1 cent to $19.10.
On an unchanged workweek
In September, the average workweek for all employees was unchanged at 34.2 hours. The manufacturing workweek for all employees decreased by 0.1 hour to 40.1 hours, and factory overtime was unchanged at 3.0 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private non-farm payrolls was unchanged at 33.5 hours.