» 2011 » September

Equities have been in a pure state of denial many bears would believe. On the other hand bulls would believe bears are the ones in denial. One thing both sides can agree upon by looking at almost any chart is that equities continue to diverge from various credit products, sentiment readings, commodi...

The price action of high yield funds can be great tools for helping investors and financial professionals in building portfolios, a topic I previously discussed on September 20th. The first chart below illustrates that, over the past decade plus, high yield funds have given quality leading-edge sig...

The risk faced by those who are analyzing macro trends is sounding like a broken record. For those younger readers who have no idea what that phrase means, imagine an mp3 song that will stick on and endlessly repeat a random segment of the song you are listening to until you give your device a shar...

In times of uncertainty, when many fear the sky is falling and that there is no hope for recovery, a prudent investor will begin to look for opportunities.   The problem is getting the timing of those opportunities right.   Lately, there have been a raft of analysts and pundits promoting that th...

A very nasty day on Wall Street today. It really does appear this time “it is different.” It appears risk is truly perceived differently than when the Fed was more active “facilitating the free market.” It appears forced selling has begun. It appears investors are beginning to make redemptio...

On September 22, the Dow and S&P opened down over 2.5%. Oil was down, copper was down, and even GOLD was down sharply. Watch this video excerpt from Robert Prechter’s special video issue of the August Elliott Wave Theorist where he explains what is causing diverse markets such as these t...

Once again credit refuses to follow along with the strategy of hope that equities are using. They refuse to accept proposed and rumored bailouts of Europe. They refuse to accept economic weakness as simply transitory. In fact credit markets are hitting multi decade if not all time lows. Credit marke...

The Eurozone bailout, now being referred to as Euro TARP, is doomed to fail.  While nothing has been officially announced the markets are rallying broadly on the back of a news article published by CNBC on Monday.  The details are lacking as to the actual structure but speculation is already r...

Todd Martin, an Asia equity strategist at Societe General SA, talks about the outlook for China’s economy and credit market. Martin also discusses global stocks and commodities. He speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move Asia.”  The interview sta...

Once again we see divergence between the SPX and the implied volatility skew. In other words Monday’s rally did not quite pass the “smell test.” In fact in really stunk. IV Skew VS SPX Notice the divergence once again which does not support Monday’s rally. One data point is not enough to com...

Slow growth is embedding itself solidly into the US economy and the bond mayhem in Europe continues.  The external environment for China is getting worse.  This will almost certainly make China’s adjustment – when Beijing finally gets serious about it – all the more difficult.  With stil...

According to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August, economic activity weakened, but the three-month moving average does not signal a recession. Here are the opening paragraphs of the report:   Led by declines in production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed Nationa...