» 2011 » November

European bonds had a good day today. A good day is when nothing blows up. Italy 10-Year Government Bonds  Italy 2-Year Government Bonds  Germany 10-Year Government Bonds  Germany 2-Year Government Bonds  After a brief spurt higher, which sent S&P futures down a percent last evening, Ita...

The people buying bonds issued by Italy and Spain are clearly looking past the dysfunctional balance sheets and focusing on Germany’s reluctance to let a major PIIGS country default. So an Italian bond, in the mind of the market, becomes a German bond. But this sword cuts both ways. If European d...

Another day where equity and credit continue to diverge from one another. From treasury yields falling to sovereign debt yields rising to multi year records in EUR basis swaps, sovereign CDS, etc credit is pricing in continued risk to the global economy while equity goes the other direction. At the ...

Today the Conference Board released its consumer confidence survey for November which showed a sharp jump in the last month from 40.9 to 56.   This is the highest level of the index since July just prior to the debt ceiling debacle and the surge in the Greek crisis.   Of course, a recovery from ...

With each and every report comes “hope” that maybe, potentially, somehow the moribund housing market has finally reached its inevitable bottom and is now on the verge of the next great advance.   Nothing could be further from the truth. I say this with a bit of pain because I am a home...

Wall Street Journal readers saw the front-page story entitled “Investors Bullish on Fed Tips,” by Susan Pulliam.  The opening discussion was alarming. The story discusses private conversations that took place between Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Nancy Lazar, an economist with International St...

With the huge rally in Europe and echo rally in the US, one would have expected Treasuries to tumble and yields to rise. But such was not the case. The yield on the 10-year note closed at 1.97, unchanged from Friday. Despite the equity market mania and press reports of record Black Friday and Cyber ...

As we all know, the key to successful investing is very simple: “Buy low, sell high.” However, you enter a chaotic, fun-house world of uncertainty once you ponder the logical follow-up question: “When?” Investors desperate to solve this riddle have come up with solutions as v...

The Economist is frequently a mixed bag. Here is an article on the global housing market that pretty much hits the right spot. Please consider House of horrors, part 2 The bursting of the global housing bubble is only halfway through. MANY of the world’s financial and economic woes since 2008 be...

Angela Merkel is leading the call for a rule change, a rewiring of the basic treaty that binds the EU. But is it both too much and too late? The market action suggests that time is indeed running out, and so we’ll look at the likely consequences. Then I glance over the other way and take notice of...

When the markets turned on October 4 a lot of things were different versus today yet many traders fail to realize that. Instead they are fearful of another such ramp and determined to get in front of this move. As a friendly reminder to those readers older than six Santa Claus is make believe. The t...

What is the real problem with today’s market? Watch this excerpt from Robert Prechter’s special, video issue of the August 2011 Elliott Wave Theorist. Prechter shows you how the buildup of dollar-denominated debt has brought us to what he calls a critical market juncture. Get even more ...