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Viewing Profile: Syndicated Publisher
Latest Posts by Syndicated Publisher
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Philly Fed ADS Business Conditions Index SlowingBy Syndicated Publisher on June 11, 2013 | No Comments
The Philly Fed’s Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (hereafter the ADS index) is a fascinating but relatively little known real-time indicator of business conditions for the U.S. economy, not just the Third Federal Reserve District, which covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New ... -
China: How Much Investment Is Optimal?By Syndicated Publisher on June 11, 2013 | No Comments
In the May 10 issue of my blog I referred to a very interesting IMF paper written by Il Houng Lee, Murtaza Syed, and Liu Xueyan. The study, “China’s Path to Consumer-Based Growth: Reorienting Investment and Enhancing Efficiency”, attempts among other things to evaluate the efficiency... -
Japan: Banzai! Banzai! Banzai!By Syndicated Publisher on June 11, 2013 | No Comments
As kids, not knowing that we were being politically incorrect on so many levels, we would shout “Geronimo!” when we were playing war or getting ready to do something reckless. (For those not familiar, Geronimo was a rather fearsome Apache chief who plagued Mexico and the American cavalry.) Sam... -
Student Loans: Fed Balance Sheet Largest AssetBy Syndicated Publisher on June 11, 2013 | No Comments
Pop Quiz! Without recourse to your text, your notes or a Google search, what line item is the largest asset on Uncle Sam’s balance sheet? A) U.S. Official Reserve Assets B) Total Mortgages C) Taxes Receivable D) Student Loans The correct answer, as of the lates... -
Employment: The Macro TrendsBy Syndicated Publisher on June 10, 2013 | No Comments
The May jobs report came in better than expected at 175,000 jobs with the labor force ticking up slightly from the lowest levels since 1979. With the markets deeply oversold on a daily basis the report provide the catalyst necessary for traders to return to the stock market. However, what we nee... -
New Update: ECRI Recession WatchBy Syndicated Publisher on June 10, 2013 | No Comments
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 130.9, up slightly from last week’s 130.7. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) dropped to 6.3% from 6.5% last week. Last year ECRI switched focus to their version of theBig Four Economic Indicators t... -
What The Big 4 Indicators Tell Us About The EconomyBy Syndicated Publisher on June 10, 2013 | No Comments
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method. There is, however, a gene... -
One Day Jobs Bounce Or End Of The Pullback?By Syndicated Publisher on June 9, 2013 | No Comments
The S&P 500 had pulled back to the potential support at its 50-day m.a., which met the consensus forecast for just a brief pullback of 3 or 4%. And with the big rally yesterday it seems to have found the 50-day m.a. to be support again. Or could it be just the first half of a typical reaction ... -
Everything Created Digitally Is Nearly Free, Includin...By Syndicated Publisher on June 9, 2013 | No Comments
It is immeasurably easier to digitally create claims on real-world assets than it is to create real-world assets. We all understand that the cost of everything that can be created digitally is near-zero.This is why music, videos, text-based knowledge and telephone calls (Skype) are now basically fre... -
The Economic Conseqences Of 4 Corporate Profit ToolsBy Syndicated Publisher on June 9, 2013 | No Comments
Recently, I wrote an article discussing the “Truth About Wall Street Analysts” and the inherent conflict between Wall Street and individual investors. There is also another group of individuals who are also just as conflicted – corporate executives. Today, more than ever, cor... -
Percent Buy Index Warns Of Market TopBy Syndicated Publisher on June 8, 2013 | No Comments
The Percent Buy Index (PBI) shows the percentage of medium-term BUY signals for all the stocks in the S&P 500 Index, and the chart tells us if the index is medium-term overbought or oversold. Toward the end of May the PBI hit the highest reading (94.2) in its almost 14-year history. —... -
Contrary Gold Futures 3By Syndicated Publisher on June 8, 2013 | No Comments
Futures speculators are extraordinarily bearish on gold today. Their short positions on it are extreme and unprecedented, the highest seen by far in gold’s entire dozen-year secular bull. They expect downside gold momentum to persist indefinitely. But despite their reputation for sophisticat...
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