» Economy

Unexpected.  What a great word.  It is used by the media for every occassion.  Friday’s release of the March employment report ”unexpectedly” came in much weaker than the average economists’ estimates.  We have been discussing for several months that the effect of the w...

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is now at 0.0, the pivot point between growth and contraction, as reported in today’s public release of the data through March 23rd. This is the eleventh consecutive week of improving data for the G...

Earlier this month, the Department of Labor reported that 227,000 new jobs were added to the economy in February, marking the third consecutive month of positive jobs growth. Many observers have taken the news as evidence that the recovery is underway in earnest, helping send the S&P 500 index ...

Want to know if the economy is really recovering?  If an economy is truly growing then it leads to a demand for construction.  As demand on businesses exceed their current capacity they build or expand facilities.  As the economy strengthens so does employment.  Increases in employment ultimate...

With the unemployment rate in the high single-digits and with national average gasoline prices approaching last years’ highs of $4/gallon, one would think that the consumer discretionary sector, which lives and breathes by the spending habits of the US consumer, would be struggling. However, n...

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) came in at -0.4 in today’s public release of the data through March 16th. This is the tenth consecutive week of improvement (less negative) data for the Growth Index and the highest level (i.e., lea...

Bill King, who we have interviewed on our radio show a few times in the past, ruffled more than a few feathers recently when he made the following statement in a recent King Report; “851k NFP jobs were created NSA; 811k were created NSA last February. The reality is 1.8 million jobs have ...

For a third year in a row mainstream economists and analysts are once again planting the seeds of hope for a return to stronger GDP growth.  The White House, if you look at their budget estimations, are banking on it as part of their long term deficit reduction plan.  Unfortunately, it is highly u...

“Six years into our global data collection effort, we may have already found the single most searing, clarifying, helpful, world-altering fact. “What the whole world wants is a good job. “This is one of the most important dsicoveries Gallup has ever made. At the very least, it need...

Given the extremely high correlation between central bank balance sheets and the price of gold, it is possible to determine the implied price relative to current debt levels. In doing so, we calculate gold’s “central bank balance sheet value” at around $1900 an ounce. Gold has...

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) came in at -1.4 in today’s public release of the data through March 9th. This is the ninth consecutive week of improvement (less negative) data for the Growth Index and the highest level (i.e., leas...

The commentary below is a reprint of a new post on the ECRI website. This is a most welcome expansion on ECRI’s rationale for repeatedly affirming its bold recession call last September despite numerous signs in the intervening months of a seemingly improving economy. Many have questioned why...