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Inquiring minds are reading an excellent report China Real Estate Unravels by Patrick Chovanec, a professor at Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management in Beijing, China. The report confirms many of the things I said would happen in regards to the Chinese real estate bubble and...

China bulls are in for a multi-year shock because rebalancing from an economy overly dependent on exports is going to be far more painful, and last much longer than most think. Data is coming in much weaker than expected, but I propose this is only the very beginning. The New York Times reports D...

In 2006 I started making a number of predictions based on what I thought was the necessary and logical development of China’s growth model. Some of these predictions seemed fairly outlandish, especially to China analysts – Chinese and foreign – who had very little knowledge of economic hist...

Inquiring minds are listening to Marc Faber on the global economy. Link if video does not play: Marc Faber speaks of Imminent Market Crash Faber says China faces a recession defined as a slowdown to 3%. Interestingly, 3% is the same long-term target that Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets ...

Commodities have been sinking like stones since late February, an unusual divergence from the rallying stock markets.  This relentless weakness has wreaked havoc on commodities sentiment, leading traders to abandon commodities stocks.  As we all try to make sense of this surreal bloodbath, one cat...

JPMorgan analyst Adrian Mowat says Chinese Economy Already in ‘Hard Landing’ “If you look at the Chinese data, you should stop debating about a hard landing,” Mowat, who is based in Hong Kong, said at a conference in Singapore yesterday. “China is in a hard landing. Car sales are ...

Contrary to some recent research reports cited in the press I do not think we have seen any substantial rebalancing of the economy towards consumption in 2011.  This is largely an argument being made by economists who did not see why Chinese consumption repression was all along at the heart of t...

The latest January trade data of China showed the broadest measure of China’s global trade surplus fell to a several-year low to around 2.7% of GDP.  Export also collapsed to a negative 0.5% year-over-year in January, down from +13.4% in December.  Imports looked even more dire with a 15.3...

About 45 minutes outside of Shanghai are the deserted ruins of what was supposed to be the world’s largest amusement park. Instead, farmers have reclaimed the land planting corn and digging wells next to spires modeled after Disneyland. Please consider China’s deserted fake Disneyland Alon...

For years I have been arguing that the Achilles heel of the Chinese growth model is the unsustainable rise in debt that comes as a necessary consequence of capital misallocation fueled by bank lending.  Capital misallocation, I argued, was the nearly inevitable consequence of high investment gro...

Equity markets soared on central bank manipulations and various rumors the past few days. However, neither rumors nor trivial actions (which is all that happened) can save the global economy. Yesterday stocks rallied on news China Cuts Bank Reserve Ratios by .5 Percentage Points and Central Banks C...

Does the US have the right to defend itself? If so why doesn’t any nation have the right to defend itself? What is the best way for the US to deal with Iran? Here is a video in Chinese, with English subtitles, in which China says it will defend Iran. Link if video does not play: “Chin...