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The current correction is creating very oversold conditions on intermediate-term indicators, like the ITBM (breadth) and ITVM (volume). While oversold indicators often signal final price lows for a correction, extremely oversold readings are a sign that the price low for the correction probably won...

A subscriber wrote to ask how the current 9-Month Cycle relates to the current 4-Year Cycle, if at all. First, let’s look at the 9-Month Cycle chart. I have drawn a vertical dashed line on the far right of the chart to mark where the next 9-Month Cycle is projected to arrive — right abou...

May 1 marked the beginning of a 6-month period of unfavorable seasonality. Research published by Yale Hirsch in the Trader’s Almanac shows that the market year is broken into two six-month seasonality periods. From May 1 through October 31 seasonality is unfavorable, and the market most often...

A subscriber brought something to my attention that I wish I had thought of before. We think (at least I did) that the SPY (ETF) and SPX (S&P 500 Index) perform pretty much the same except for some minor tracking error. However, this is not the case because the SPY historical data is adjusted fo...

A major issue with which investors are having to deal is the global debt crisis. While it is currently centered in Europe, we should be clear that Europe is merely the location where the first dominoes are likely to fall. My purpose here is not to conduct a complete dissection of the issue, only to ...

We don’t look at the 4-Year Cycle chart very often, but a subscriber’s comments reminded me that now would be an excellent time to view the progress of this important cycle. (Excerpt from the March 30, 2012 blog for Decision Point subscribers.) Click here for FREE TRIAL! On the chart ...

A recent news release caught my eye and I thought the story could use a little clarification. Bullish Sentiment Among Active Traders Jumps to Highest Level in Four Years, Says New Schwab Survey (Excerpt from the March 23, 2012 blog for Decision Point subscribers.) Click here for FREE TRIAL! SAN FRA...

Apple is a great company, and AAPL has been a great stock since early-2009. From that point to the end of 2011 it rose +300% in an orderly, relentless advance. The angle of the rising trend line was conservative and sustainable. Unfortunately, since the beginning of this year AAPL has begun a vertic...

We are in the midst of turbulent times, and it seems inevitable that things can only get worse. When casting about for a safe investment, it seems that gold is one of a very few areas of safety (and I don’t know what the other ones are); however, when we look at historical charts, it is obviou...

Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) generated a PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) SELL signal because the PMO crossed down through its 10-EMA. This signal was flagged on today’s ETF Tracker Report.   Positive: PMO SELL signal occurred in recent overbought territory. Double-top formation, ...

At Decision Point we keep a close watch on asset levels in the Rydex mutual fund group as a way of evaluating investor sentiment. An important result of these efforts is the Rydex Asset Ratio, which is calculated by dividing assets in the Bear plus Money Market Funds by the assets in the Bull Funds....

Last week my Chart Spotlight article asserted that stocks are fairly valued because the twelve-month trailing (TMT) P/E is about 15, which is midway the normal P/E range of 10 (undervalued) to 20 (overvalued). The middle panel of the chart below demonstrates this concept. (Excerpt from the Februar...