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Long term readers of my Market Wrap would be aware that I occasionally bring out my 3 favourite Bear Market charts in order to remind readers that they need to look at the larger cycle patterns in play in order to keep individual long term trends in some sort of perspective. I usually do this when ...

I found this week’s Chart of the Day article of interest so have added it to the market wrap. “Today’s chart illustrates how the stock market has performed during the average pre-election year. Since 1900, the stock market has tended to perform well during the first seven to eight months ...

What does it mean when Conti turn cycles and Fibonacci levels of support and resistance at one level are sliced through like a hot knife through butter?  Does that mean that they are no longer useful and are to be thrown on the trash heap?  I answer that with a resounding no.  What it means is th...

Well, just goes to show that you have to follow the price action and not get any preconceived ideas. Wave “c” of the corrective move in the USD completed and then commenced another leg downward.  We have reached a price level that has provided strong support on previous occasions so it wil...

Last week I had labeled the move from the bottom of the USD as a 12345 impulse wave. What transpired since then was an additional wave which made it a 7 wave move necessitating me to re-label the move as a corrective wxy(xx)z pattern instead. For the time being I have labeled that pattern as corre...

The US dollar last week gave us a breakout that looked promising for the equity bears but it was short lived. We can see from the chart below how it initially broke out and then capitulated. This led to the continued rallying of the US equity markets. We can see that we have had a more convincing ...

The USD index in my view is the key to the future direction of the market at this stage of the cycle. Last week I provided a chart of the USD index that appeared to be making a simple abc corrective wave before resuming its upward trend. The price action in the past week has proven that the correc...

The USD index has broken through a blue descending trend line and has the appearance of a WXY corrective pattern forming. If true this would indicate that the USD could rise further which could give downward pressure on commodities and US equities. Wave W took 18 trading days to form and wave Y has ...

UPDATE: January 1st 2010. I would like to thank those readers who alerted me to the fact that the 66 point drop in the ASX200 futures contract shown on the Bloomberg site is not a true reflection of the likely market action for the XJO scheduled for the market open on Tuesday. Apparently the fut...

In spite of discussions about potential inversions taking place in the XJO in my previous Market Wrap it would appear that my original call of a top for the XJO in late December /early January remains the valid call. It is always difficult to time a top exactly especially when you have a ‘creepin...

Hhmmmm.  The role of a technical analyst is similar to that of a forensic investigator.  You have to gather all the known facts and make an attempt to decipher what the clues are telling you. One of the difficulties that we face is that the market is not a static entity but rather continually cha...

I have been publishing this free market wrap for many years now and one of the discoveries that I have made is that in spite of every care taken to specify things as accurately as possible, human nature kicks in and people will read words through the ‘filters’ of their personal experiences and p...