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» john rubino

  • Interest Rates Spiking Everywhere
    By on May 20, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Just as ultra-low interest rates start to seem normal, the markets decide otherwise. US 10-year Treasury bonds yielded about 1.9% in April and are now above 2.20%: And the trend reversal isn’t limited to the US. Across Europe and Asia rates have spiked in the past month. From Bloomberg: What doe...
  • No Money, No Growth
    By on May 19, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Last August, the US Fed stopped creating new currency out of thin air and dumping it into the banking system. Which is another way of saying the US money supply stopped growing. Here’s the adjusted monetary base — a proxy for the amount of new currency the Fed is creating — over the past eight...
  • US Nearing Recession, Dollar Falling Hard
    By on May 14, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    The dollar soars by a record amount versus the euro and the yen in 2014. And economists predict strong growth in 2015. Really? If a country can have a rapidly-appreciating currency with all the benefits that that confers, and strong economic growth with all the obvious advantages that that confers, ...
  • The End Is Near, Part IV: Peak Trophy Asset Inflation
    By on May 13, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Stories about insane prices being paid for unique (and some not so unique) things are now a daily occurrence. A few examples: Picasso’s Women of Algiers smashes auction record (BBC) – Picasso’s Women of Algiers has become the most expensive painting to sell at auction, going for $160m (£102....
  • Canaries In The Coal Mine, Part I: Tech High-Flyers F...
    By on May 12, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    While the “stock market” continues to flirt with new records, there’s turmoil under the surface. High-flying social media companies Twitter and LinkedIn fell hard in late April, and now recent IPO Etsy, an online marketplace for arts and crafts, is down 50% since going public (8% of that today...
  • Currency War Collateral Damage: China Stops Growing, ...
    By on May 11, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    When a country pegs its currency to a bigger one like the US dollar, it in effect outsources its monetary policy to the operator of that other currency. This confers several benefits, including the enforced discipline of the other, presumably more rigorous monetary regime and the simplicity of letti...
  • Mediocre Is The New Perfect?
    By on May 10, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Three things happened on Friday: The Labor Department reported a big jump in employment; the financial markets responded like kids on Christmas morning; and — with a few hours lag — level-headed analysts deconstructed the jobs report and found it to be mediocre at best. To take just a few of the...
  • The End Is Near Part II – Corporations: The Ult...
    By on May 5, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    David Stockman just published a chart so compelling that he didn’t feel the need to add any commentary. But there are a few things to be said about the tendency of public companies to repurchase their shares at the very top: “Peak buyback” is a sign that executives are seeing fewer opportunit...
  • Why Investors Should Be Terrified, In One Chart
    By on May 5, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Advisor Perspectives’ Doug Short recently published an update on margin debt, accompanied by several well-made charts. But it only takes one to make the point. See below for the relationship between margin debt — money borrowed by retail investors against their stocks and used to buy more stock ...
  • Is Solar Power About To Crush Big Oil, Big Coal AND E...
    By on May 2, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Something amazing has happened in the energy market. The cost of solar power has fallen to the point where, in a growing number of places, it’s cheaper than the electricity that utilities deliver from their coal-fired power plants. And its price is still falling. The implications are huge. Most of...
  • Japan Hits The Easy Money Wall. We May Be Next.
    By on April 29, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Japan, whose monetary policy is by far the world’s most expansive, just reported retail sales that soared on the wings of all that newly-created currency. Just kidding. Retail sales tanked: Japan Retail Sales Slump Flashes Warning Signal for Kuroda (Bloomberg) – Japan’s retail sales fell in M...
  • The End Is Near, Part 1: The War On Cash
    By on April 28, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    As the saying goes, you can know a person by the quality of his or her enemies. This is also true of societies, where moral evolution can be traced by simply listing the things on which they declare war. Not so long ago, for instance, the world’s good guys — the US, Europe’s democracies and a ...
  • US Factories Crushed By Strong Dollar
    By on April 27, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Government statistics are always suspect, for at least one obvious reason: Modern economies are way too big and complex to measure in real-time. So virtually every number is revised in the months after its release, frequently to the point of saying something very different. But by then lots of new d...
  • The Coolest Silver Coins, Finally Back On The Market
    By on April 25, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    In 2005 a New Jersey car dealer named Chris Duane started questioning the system that let his customers borrow ridiculous amounts of money to buy the frivolous things he was selling. He studied a little monetary history and concluded that fiat currency was a doomed concept and that sound money, espe...
  • Corporate Profit Pattern Emerges: OK Earnings, Sales ...
    By on April 23, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    CNBC has a daily feature called after-hours buzz that, it being earnings season, is full of corporate quarterly reports. And lately the same story has been repeated: decent earnings but weak sales and/or disappointing guidance. Here’s today’s list: AT&T topped analysts’ profit estimates by...
  • When All News Is Bad News
    By on April 23, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    One of the defining traits of financial bubbles is the willingness of traders and investors to interpret pretty much everything as a buy signal. Rising corporate earnings mean growth, while falling profits mean easier money on the way. War means more revenues for defense contractors and easy money f...

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