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  • ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
    By on August 12, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 131.8, essentially unchanged from last week’s 131.7 (a downward revision from 131.8). The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose to 5.3 from last week’s 4.9%. Last year ECRI switched focus to thei...
  • Second Half Bullish Catalysts Appear On Track
    By on June 16, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    Since May 22nd the markets have been taking a much needed breather and have continued to cool off into this week. While the markets have had a mild pullback, there is nothing in the data below to currently alter our bullish outlook for the market and economy. As seen below, our recession probability...
  • ECRI Recession Watch: New Update
    By on June 16, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 131.3, up slightly from last week’s 131.0 (revised from 130.9). The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose to 6.6% from 6.4% last week (revised from 6.3%). Last year ECRI switched focus to their version...
  • New Update: ECRI Recession Watch
    By on June 10, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 130.9, up slightly from last week’s 130.7. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) dropped to 6.3% from 6.5% last week. Last year ECRI switched focus to their version of theBig Four Economic Indicators t...
  • ECRI Recession Watch: Index Flat, Growth Up
    By on May 6, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 130.6, unchanged from last week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose to 7.2% from 6.8% last week. Last year ECRI switched focus to their version of theBig Four Economic Indicators that I routinely tra...
  • Big Four Economic Indicators: What Are They Saying?
    By on April 30, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method. There is, however, a gene...
  • Market Health Update: Weakening, Sell Signal Close
    By on April 18, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    As highlighted in a previous article (click for link), while the economy is on solid footing with little chance of a recession on the near horizon, there are some warning signs that we could be due for a soft patch in Q2. Two leading indicators cited in a prior article were the relative performance ...
  • ECRI Recession Update: Leading Index Renews Decline
    By on April 9, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is now at 129.2, down from 129.7 last week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) has also declined fractionally to 6.2%, down from last week’s 6.5% (a downward revision from 6.6%). Last year ECRI switched fo...
  • ECRI Recession Update: Weekly Leading Index Steady
    By on March 30, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) to one decimal place is unchanged from last week. It is now at 129.7, the same as last week’s downward revision from 129.8. See the WLI chart in the Appendix below. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) has...
  • ECRI Recession Update: Indicators Refuse To Co-Operat...
    By on March 18, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose in today’s update. It is now at 129.9 versus the previous week’s 129.5 (revised upward from 129.3). See the WLI chart in the Appendix below. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) has eased, now a...
  • ECRI Still Standing Firm On Recession Call
    By on March 11, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose in today’s update. It is now at 129.3 versus the previous week’s 128.4 (revised from 128.5). See the WLI chart in the Appendix below. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) also eased, now at 6.2,...
  • ECRI Recession Update: Indicators Continue To Slip
    By on March 3, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) slipped again in today’s update. It is now at 128.5 versus the previous week’s 129.0 (revised from 129.1). See the WLI chartin the Appendix below. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) also eased, now ...
  • Reflections On The Wage Recession
    By on March 3, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    Jed Graham at Investor’s Business Daily has an interesting chart showing Wage Recession Hits 5 Years; Worse Than Jobs Drought. I can show it’s even worse, but first let’s consider a chart and commentary by Graham.  As bad as the current job recovery has been — and it’s by...
  • Consumer Metrics Institute: Hard Year Ahead
    By on March 3, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The US economy stalled in the 4th quarter, but the analysis that accompanied the latest (slightly positive) GDP revision seemed to imply that the reasons for the weakness – a drawdown of inventories and lower defense spending – would be reversed out in coming months, making 2013 a pretty good ye...
  • New Update: The Big 4 Economic Indicators
    By on February 6, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
      Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method. There is, however,...
  • ECRI Leading Index Growth Hits New Highs
    By on February 4, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) slipped in the latest public data. It is now at 129.7 versus the previous week’s upwardly revised 130.7 (previously 130.6). See the WLI chart in the Appendix below. However, the WLI annualized growth indicator (...