» recession

A few months ago Business Insider posted a commentary with the attention-grabbing headline:DAVID ROSENBERG: Here’s Your Big Red Flag That We Could Be Heading For Recession. Rosenberg has frequently included CAPEX among his various recession indicators, but he focuses on a specific manipulati...

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose in the latest public data. It is now at 130.4 versus the previous week’s 128.1 (which is an downward revision from 128.3). See the WLI chart in the Appendix below. Likewise the WLI annualized growth indicat...

Germany is in recession. It’s not a “technical recession”, no matter how anyone labels it. And the recession will pick up steam as the year progresses. Please consider Germany’s economy shrinks most in 3 years as crisis hits eurozone powerhouse.  WIESBADEN, Germany — The Ger...

The mainstream media has this as a leading headline today… Recession Stalks Germany as Breakeven Rates Drop: Euro Credit. The falling cost of protecting against inflation in the German bond market portends a deeper slowdown in Europe’s largest economy, signalling the effects of the con...

The vaunted German export machine is sinking into the abyss. The Markit Flash Germany PMI® shows German private sector sees fastest falls in output and new business since June 2009.  Key Points Flash Germany Composite Output Index(1) at 47.3 (48.1 in June), 37-month low. Flash Germany Services...

There is a big difference between making a claim the economy is in recession from a claim the economy is headed for one. Case for a Global Recession I think the entire global economy is in recession and said so on July 6, 2012 in Plunging New Orders Suggest Global Recession Has Arrived However, we ...

Forget about probabilities and statistics and measures of so-called leading indicators (such as the stock market which does not lead), and the yield curve that is useless when zero-bound. Instead, simply focus on data from around the globe, especially new orders. Markit reports Global economic gro...

I am amused by the Shadow Weekly Leading Index Project which claims the probability of recession is 31%. I think it is much higher. When the NBER, the official arbiter of recessions finally backdates the recession, May or June of 2012 appear to be likely months. Let’s take a look at why. US...

Every year for the past three years there have been recurring calls for a housing bottom and recovery. The importance of an eventual recovery in housing should not be dismissed as it is a critical component of an economic recovery due to the large multiplier effect of each dollar spent. The recovery...

Markit Reports Eurozone PMI Suffers Worst Downturn Since Mid-2009 Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index at 45.9 (46.7 in April). 35-month low. Flash Eurozone Services PMI Activity Index at 46.5 (46.9 in April). 7-month low. Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 45.0 (45.9 in April). 35-month low....

Earlier this week the Wall Street Journal posted the results of its May Survey of economists. Naturally I charted some of the data, focusing on GDP, but I held off on sharing it until we got the latest Federal Reserve GDP projections, published at 2 PM today. Here’s a link to the Journal’...

Australia is in grim shape. Retailers are going under, home prices are sinking, and there is an enormous collapse in the entire service sector. Collapse in Service Sector Markit reports Australia Services Sector Slumps in April  KEY FINDINGS The latest seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Gro...