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The psychology of the stock market may be teetering on the edge.  One week it acts like Dr. Jekyll, the next week it’s Mr. Hyde. That shift can even occur in the course of a single session. These dramatic fluctuations appear to be impulsive; and we know that impulse does not flow from cold re...

We have been reporting since December about the potential impact of the weather (Retail Sales and Employment) on the economic numbers.  Those impacts ranged not only from borrowing from the future growth but also by skewing the underlying data due to how seasonal adjustment formulas work. The cha...

Ten more years of low returns in the stock market.  If you are one of the millions of baby boomers headed into retirement – start saving more and spending less because the stock market won’t bail you out.  Now that I have your attention I will explain why this is the likely future ahea...

Given their overall size, the stock market and economy resemble a large oil tanker much more than a speed boat. Rather than turning on a dime or suddenly changing speed all at once, there is often an unseen and well-charted process that accompanies gradual changes in economic momentum. For investors...

The $OEXA200R (the percentage of S&P 100 stocks above their 200 DMA) is a technical indicator available on StockCharts.com that can be used to forecast conservative entry and exit points for the stock market. The OEXA is used to find the “sweet spot” time period in the market when yo...

It’s that time of year again when we do our best to put our best “guessing hat” on as to what the new year may bring in terms of the economy, the markets and the world.  This is a preview of the full report that will be released this coming weekend.  To access the full report si...

Although originally published in 2004, the valuable series has been re-released in the Independent Investor eBook, along with over 100 pages of other reports that challenge conventional economic thinking.  The following series is excerpted from two classic issues of Robert Prechter’s Elliott...

Commodity expert Dennis Gartman certainly struck a nerve in the financial community as word hit the street of his call on gold in the latest Gartman Letter(subscription required). Here is the gist, as reported by Bloomberg: “Since the early autumn here in the Northern Hemisphere gold has...

Though nobody seems to notice, stock prices are correlated to employment, which is trending down. The Federal Reserve would have you believe that Monday morning ramp-and-camp and rumor-mill rallies in the last five minutes of trading are signs of a healthy Bull market. Or you can consider the realit...

Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor’s “as reported” earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly averages of daily closes for October 2011, which is 1226.41. The ratios in parentheses use the monthly close of ...

Another day where equity and credit continue to diverge from one another. From treasury yields falling to sovereign debt yields rising to multi year records in EUR basis swaps, sovereign CDS, etc credit is pricing in continued risk to the global economy while equity goes the other direction. At the ...

With the huge rally in Europe and echo rally in the US, one would have expected Treasuries to tumble and yields to rise. But such was not the case. The yield on the 10-year note closed at 1.97, unchanged from Friday. Despite the equity market mania and press reports of record Black Friday and Cyber ...