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  • Gold Headed Down To $1,500 Or Worse?
    By on May 15, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    We remain on a sell signal for gold. Our signal was primarily due to deterioration of gold’s technicals, reversals of our momentum indicators (not shown), investor sentiment for gold at the time, the pattern of lower highs and lower lows, and so forth. But as usual, the fundamentals have caught u...
  • Plunging Commodities Ominous For Stock Markets!
    By on May 12, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    Consumers understandably like to see prices for commodities decline, the more the merrier, particularly gasoline and energy costs. Many analysts also take commodity price declines as a positive for the economy, on the theory that consumers will have more spending money in their pockets, and manufact...
  • Scary Chart Says Global Bear Market Underway!
    By on May 11, 2012 | 1 Comment1 Comment  Comments
    We haven’t seen this analysis anywhere else, but it’s looking increasingly like global markets outside of the U.S. rolled over into a bear market last April, and that their rally off the October low was only a bear market rally within an ongoing bear market. We’ve been saying we expect on...
  • Be Careful of Claims About Election Years!
    By on May 9, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    As is the case every election year, I’m seeing and hearing a lot about how election years are always positive, and getting a lot of e-mails from non-subscribers asking if the market’s seasonality ever works in election years, since they’re always positive for investors. I can tell you how our...
  • Europe Bigger Problem Than Slowing US Economy!
    By on May 5, 2012 | 7 Comments7 Comments  Comments
    The U.S. economic recovery may be only stumbling now, but the economies of Europe are crumbling, and the debris cannot help but contaminate the world. Here’s the problem in a handful of words. Germany is Europe’s strongest economy. Yet even its Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) fell to ...
  • Huge Economic Week Having No Effect, So Far!
    By on May 4, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    On Saturday I said this week’s unusually heavy week of important economic reports in the U.S. and globally would likely decide the market’s direction for a while. But so far, even though the reports have been startling in some cases, the market has shrugged them off, and gone into idle mode. The...
  • Fed Rescue Will Come Deliberately Late!
    By on May 3, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    There can be no doubt anymore that the global economic recovery is in trouble again. In the U.S. we can see it in the reversals of previously positive economic reports; unexpected declines in durable goods orders, industrial production, new home sales, existing home sales, new home starts, construct...
  • Bad News Piling On!
    By on April 25, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    Global stock markets were barraged with worries from all sides yesterday. From Asia it was that China’s economic slowdown continues. Although its PMI index ticked up in April it remained under 50 for the 6th straight month, indicating contraction.       Meanwhile 63% of Chinese c...
  • Beware of ‘Defensive Stock’ Advice!
    By on April 22, 2012 | 59 Comments59 Comments  Comments
    With the U.S. economic recovery stumbling again, the euro-zone debt crisis back in the headlines, and ‘Sell in May and Go Away’ on the minds of many investors, Wall Street is beginning to put out advice on how to prepare for a potential market correction. The advice has always been the same. You...
  • Will This Correction Morph Into Something Worse?
    By on April 19, 2012 | 102 Comments102 Comments  Comments
    This week is a quite heavy week for economic reports. They include Retail Sales, the Empire State Business Index, The Phila Fed Mfg Index, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, Industrial Production, the Leading Economic Indicators, etc. So far they’ve been biased toward the negative. Retail sales...
  • More Impetus For A Summer Correction!
    By on April 15, 2012 | 11 Comments11 Comments  Comments
    Another week of economic reports adds to the likelihood of a summer correction in the stock market again this year, and even to the possibility that it has already begun. After four or five months of surprisingly strong economic reports that fueled the rally off the October low, it looks like the U....
  • Lousy Jobs Report Confirms Fed’s Suspicions!
    By on April 9, 2012 | 64 Comments64 Comments  Comments
    In his widely covered speech two weeks ago, Fed Chairman Bernanke said the anemic U.S. economic recovery seemed to be continuing, but that the Fed was suspicious of the positive employment reports of recent months. His actual words were “the better jobs numbers seem somewhat out of synch with the ...

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